Aviation Stats-TAVHL (Tacirler Yatırım )

We review TAV Airports' February passenger growth as "Slightly
Positive." While the weakness in domestic passenger numbers put
some pressure on overall traffic, international passenger growth
continued. We maintain TAVHL in our Model Portfolio with a
target price of TL396 and a 60% upside potential. We also reiterate
our BUY recommendation.
Highlights
The weakness in domestic passenger traffic was partially offset by
the growth in international traffic
In February, total passenger traffic increased by 3% y/y, reaching 5.5mn
passengers. The number of domestic passengers declined by 2%
compared to the previous year, totaling 2.55mn, while international
passenger numbers rose by 8% y/y, reaching 3.1mn. During the first
two months of the first quarter of 2025, total passenger traffic increased
by 7% y/y, reaching 11.9mn passengers. Domestic passenger traffic
grew by 4% compared to the same period last year, reaching 5.4mn,
while international passenger numbers increased by 10% y/y, reaching
6.6mn.
Strong growth in international passenger traffic
International passenger traffic demonstrated strong growth in the first
two months of 2025, with a 10% increase compared to the same period
in 2024. Ankara's international passenger numbers grew by 9%, while
İzmir recorded a 21% increase in international passenger traffic, and
Almaty experienced a growth rate exceeding 10%. The increase in
İzmir’s international passenger traffic was largely driven by the flights
operated by Sun Express and Pegasus.
2025 Expectations
Looking ahead to 2025, we believe that a potential resolution in the
Russia-Ukraine conflict could positively impact passenger traffic.
Although there has not yet been concrete progress toward peace,
potential policy changes under a Trump administration could act as a
supportive factor. TAV Airports has set ambitious targets for 2025,
projecting revenue between EUR1.75bn and EUR1.85bn, with total
passenger traffic expected to reach between 110mn - 120mn. The
company anticipates international passenger traffic to be between
75mn - 83mn, while EBITDA is forecasted to range between EUR520mn
and EUR590mn. Capital expenditures for the year are estimated to be
between EUR140mn and EUR160mn, with an additional investment of
EUR150mn - EUR300mn planned for the Almaty New Investment
Program, which will be implemented over a three to four-year period
from 2025 to 2028. The Net Debt/EBITDA ratio is expected to fall within
the range of 2.5x - 3.0x in 2025.

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                               Yasal Uyarı
 
  Burada yer alan yatırım bilgi, yorum ve tavsiyeler yatırım danışmanlığı kapsamında değildir.Yatırım danışmanlığı hizmeti ; aracı kurumlar, portföy yönetim şirketleri, mevduat kabul etmeyen bankalar ile müşteri arasında imzalanacak yatırım danışmanlığı sözleşmesi çerçevesinde sunulmaktadır.Burada yer alan yorum ve tavsiyeler, yorum ve tavsiyede bulunanların kişisel görüşlerine dayanmaktadır.Bu görüşler mali durumunuz ile risk ve getiri tercihlerinize uygun olmayabılır.Bu nedenle, sadece burada yer alan bilgilere dayanılarak yatırım kararı verilmesi beklentilerinize uygun sonuçlar doğurmayabilir.