Company Report: Akfen Yenilenebilir Enerji (İş Yatırım)

In line with the downward revision of the company's expectaOons, we are
lowering our target price from TL 34.62 to TL 27.14 and conOnue to
recommend buying with a 75% upside potenOal.
Downward revision of expectaOons. Current market condiOons, high-variance
capacity factors experienced at hydroelectric power plants, and producOon
levels hitng rock bo?om have led to a revision of company expectaOons in
line with changing feasibility studies for related projects. In this context, the
installed capacity expectaOon for 2028 has decreased from 1,202 MW to 1,197
MW, the revenue expectaOon has decreased from $236 million to $218
million, and the EBITDA expectaOon has decreased from approximately $167
million to $141 million.
Hydropower capacity factors played an important role in the changing
expectaOons. Hydro capacity factors, which have been quite volaOle since last
year, have suppressed the company's total electricity producOon. Although the
company's share of hydroelectric producOon has decreased over the years due
to por?olio diversificaOon, the company prefers to be more cauOous in its
expectaOons. While lowering its producOon esOmates slightly, the company
revised its forward-looking electricity price expectaOon to $75.
The strong performance of the Turkish lira has put pressure on margins. The
company's cost items are denominated in TL, while its electricity sales are
denominated in USD, which has put pressure on margins. As a result, margins
narrowed in the first quarter results, while revenue and EBITDA items
remained below last year's levels in real terms due to inflaOon exceeding the
USD/TRY exchange rate. Similar margin levels appear to be maintained in
forward-looking expectaOons.
 

 
 
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