Market Watch (Şeker Yatırım)

Market Watch - Friday, May 9, 2025
Outlook:
The BIST100 Index started Thursday on a positive trend, maintaining its positive course throughout the day amid rising buying activity. The Benchmark Index closed at 9,279.21, up 2.25%. The Industrial index rose by 2.52%, while the Banking index gained 1.30%. Global markets are supported by risk appetite on expectations that Trump will significantly reduce tariffs on China. Yesterday, U.S. stock markets and European markets-except for the UK-ended the day with gains. This morning, the German DAX futures are positive, while U.S. futures and Asian markets observe mixed trading. The markets will continue to closely monitor tariff developments. March industrial production (IP) figures are out domestically today. We expect the flat to negative outlook in IP, which recovered slightly in February, to continue. The VIOP30 Index closed the evening session down 0.05%. The Benchmark Index will likely start Friday flat, and maintain a positive trend during the day if profit-taking is absorbed.
Money Market:
The Lira was positive yesterday, gaining 0.03% against the USD to close at 38.6271. The currency also appreciated by 0.39% against a basket of $0.50 and €0.50. Meanwhile, the local fixed income markets were positive. The ten-year benchmark bond was traded within a range of 34.73%-34.99%, ending the day at a low of 34.73%, 21 bps below its previous closing.
Headlines:
Industrial production data for March will be released today. We expect the flat to negative outlook in industrial production, which recovered slightly in February, to continue. Our detailed analysis will be published during the day.
Company News:
Bim (BIMAS.TI; OP) reported a net profit of TRY 2,705mn in 1Q25, which was below the RT market consensus expectation of TRY 3,756mn, and our estimate of TRY 3,541mn, marking a 49.5% YoY decline (1Q24: TRY 5,355mn). Despite achieving a 3.1% real growth in sales revenue & improved gross profitability, and an increase in income from investment activities derived from investment funds, the company recorded a net profit of TRY 2,705mn in 1Q25, down 49% YoY. Profitability was pressured by rising OpEx, an increase in net financial expenses (1Q25: TRY -1,648mn, 1Q24: TRY -1,245mn), and higher tax expenses on a yearly basis. As a result, the net profit margin dropped by 1.9 pp YoY to 1.8% in 1Q25. EBITDA declined by 14% YoY, remaining below the RT market consensus expectation of TRY 6,685mn (Seker: TRY 6,173mn), and reaching TRY 5,282mn in 1Q25. The company reported net sales revenue of TRY 147,723mn (1Q24: TRY 143,308mn), reflecting a real YoY growth of 3.1% factoring in the IAS 29 impact (RT Market Consensus: TRY 148,455mn, Seker: TRY 148,303mn).
Excluding IAS 29, the Company achieved a net profit of TRY 4,659mn in 1Q25, up 5% (1Q24: TRY 4,425mn). Net sales revenues reached TRY 144,412mn in 1Q25 on a rise of 44% YoY, due to greater basket size (1Q24: TRY 158,44, 1Q25: TRY 222,35) (+40.3%) and the positive effect of rising store number (number of stores at the end of 1Q24: 12,791 units, 1Q25: 13,809 - 172 new BIM Turkey store openings, 39 new BIM Morocco store openings, 7 new BIM Egypt store openings, and 8 new FILE store openings). Concluding this quarter with a 6.7% EBITDA margin (Exc. IAS-29), Bim registered improvement on the operational front based on "Basket Size" / "Like-for-like sales" (1Q24: TRY 87,216, 1Q25: TRY 117,828, on a 35.1% rise YoY). Duly, the Company printed TRY 9,746mn EBITDA on a YoY rise of 27% (Exc. IAS 29). The cash position rose in 1Q25 to TRY 7,954mn compared to 4Q24 (TRY 2,815mn).
Growth of the domestic and international store network continued strongly in 1Q25. Bim, which specifically rivals medium-sized markets with its FILE brand, has added 8 new FILE stores to its domestic store network in 1Q25 to reach a total of 295 FILE stores. The share of File stores in the Company's total sales revenues was 10% in 1Q25. Online sales are equal to 5% of File's total sales as of 1Q25. In Moroccan operations, the Company continued its store openings in 1Q25, resulting in a total of 828 stores. The net sales revenues of Moroccan operations in 1Q25 reached TRY 6.1bn, and its EBITDA was at TRY 404mn. In Egypt, the Company has reached a 425 store count in 1Q25. The net sales revenues of Egyptian operations in 1Q25 reached TRY 1,2bn, and its EBITDA was at TRY 48mn.
Sısecam (SISE.TI; OP) is expected to announce its 1Q25 financials after the market closes today. While the market expects a loss of TRY1,394 million, our expectation is for a net loss of TRY1,430 million. We expect net sales revenues of TRY47,080 million and EBITDA of TRY2,221 million. Market expectations are at TRY44,839 million and TRY1,955 million, respectively.
Pegasus (PGSUS.TI; OP) outperformed market expectations, reporting a net loss of €62mn in 1Q25, beating than the consensus estimate of -€72mn, and slightly up our estimate of -€57mn (1Q24: -€103mn). Total revenue advanced by 20% YoY in EUR terms to €622mn, surpassing both the market consensus estimate of €607mn, and our estimate of €582mn. EBITDA stood at €42mn, exceeding the consensus estimate of €32mn (Seker: €43mn), with an EBITDA margin of 6.8%. Pegasus has outlined a growth trajectory for 2025, targeting a 12-14% increase in ASK. The company maintains a balanced demand-supply outlook, forecasting a mid-single-digit increase in total RAS. This projection is anchored on expectations of flat to slightly higher LF, and high single-digit growth in ancillary revenue per passenger. On the cost side, Pegasus anticipates non-fuel CASK to rise by a high single-digit YoY in 2025, driven by a gradual easing of inflationary pressures relative to 2024. Meanwhile, assuming a benign fuel price environment, the airline projects a mid-single-digit increase in total CASK. Notably, the EBITDA margin is expected to remain stable or exhibit a slight improvement compared to 2024, reflecting disciplined cost management and revenue optimization initiatives. In terms of fleet expansion, Pegasus is set to receive nine A321NEO aircraft in 2025, bringing its total fleet size to 127 aircraft by year-end. Furthermore, Pegasus projects a progressive increase in average seat capacity from 191 in 2021 to 228 by 2029 (Slightly Positive).
Turkcell (TCELL.TI; OP) is to announce its 1Q25 financials today after the market close. We anticipate quarterly net profit of TRY 3,585mn while the market's median expectation is for a net profit of TRY 3,146mn. We expect 1Q25 net sales revenues and EBITDA of TRY 46,822mn and TRY 19,824mn, respectively. The market's respective quarterly net sales and EBITDA average expectations are TRY 46,797mn and TRY 19,682mn.
Vakifbank (VAKBN.TI; MP) has announced a net profit of TRY 20,034 mn in its 1Q25 solo financial results, above expectations. The announced figure was 31.6% above market expectations. Vakifbank's net profit increased by 66.6% YoY in 1Q25.



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