Market Watch (Şeker Yatırım)

Market Watch - Friday, June 13, 2025
Outlook:
The BIST 100 Index started Thursday with a bearish trend and continued its downward movement throughout the day, closing at 9,520.22, down 1.71%. The Banking Index fell by 2.10%, while the Industrial Index also declined by 1.57%. After a five-day rally driven by lower-than-expected inflation data, profit-taking dominated the BIST yesterday. Particularly, mounting geopolitical tension in the Middle East and ongoing uncertainties over the scope of the U.S.-China trade agreement negatively affected risk appetite. Globally, markets observed a mixed trend yesterday. While U.S. stock markets ended the day with gains, European markets closed lower, except for the UK. This morning, markets are being negatively impacted by escalating geopolitical risk in the Middle East, following Israel's launch of a large-scale operation against Iran's nuclear program. U.S. and German DAX futures are experiencing sharp losses, and Asian markets are also trading in the red. The VIOP-30 Index ended the evening session with a 0.20% decline. In line with rising tensions in the Middle East, we expect the BIST 100 Index to start Friday with a selling trend along with global markets, and follow a volatile course thereafter.
Money Market:
The Lira was negative yesterday, weakening 0.54% against the USD to close at 39.3438. The currency also depreciated by 1.06% against a basket of $0.50 and €0.50. Meanwhile, the local fixed income markets were negative. The ten-year benchmark bond was traded within a tight range of 33.34%-33.43%, ending the day at a high of 33.43%, 44 bps above its previous closing.
Headlines:
Industrial production declined by 3.1% month-on-month in April while recording a 3.3% increase year-on-year. While monthly production data continued to fluctuate, annual data remained flat due to the base effect...
According to industrial production index data, seasonally and calendar-adjusted production fell by 3.1% in April compared to the previous month. Thus, annual production rose by 3.3% (previously 2.5%). We had predicted a decline in April following the limited recovery seen in March. The monthly data shows a sharper slowdown than we had expected. The annual data is flat due to the base effect. In April, the additional tightening of monetary policy, resulting from political developments, increased downward pressure on production and industrial data. We had expected the recovery to become more pronounced in the second quarter of the year. Political developments in March and global economic trends have led us to revise our expectations. The biggest change in our base scenario is that we had to postpone our expectation that industrial and manufacturing companies would outperform by one quarter in the second half of the year. We view this as a process that will be applied across all stages of production data. The most significant effects of the monetary and fiscal policies implemented on economic activity are likely to be evident in 2025. As we mentioned in our previous reports, we believe that monthly recoveries reached their peak in March. For the remainder of the year, we expect a steady monthly trend and a negative output gap in annual production. We anticipate that financing costs will have a significant restrictive impact on companies and sectors with high debt burdens until the end of the year. The most positive development in this negative outlook is the strengthening of market expectations for interest rate cuts following the May inflation figures. A limited interest rate cut in June will give the market some breathing room.
Domestic political and economic developments have brought some risks to the macro-financial outlook in the second quarter. Our expectation of gradual interest rate cuts from the beginning until the end of the year has also been disrupted. The increase in the policy interest rate following the CBRT's move to widen the interest rate corridor upward has weakened expectations for production momentum. However, the high level of interest rates will inevitably put additional pressure on the real sector in terms of both production and financing. The pressure on sectors and companies with high financing costs will continue for some time. We estimate that this additional tightening measure taken against supply-side shocks may delay the improvement in the real economy by approximately one quarter. The ongoing tariff wars on the global front are also increasing the negative pressure on production expectations. The latest inflation data has created expectations of an interest rate cut in the markets. In this month's interest rate decision, the CBRT may opt for a limited interest rate cut, taking into account domestic and global developments. Interest rate cuts by the European Central Bank may also boost production for the main export market. The resolution of global concerns and the expected improvement in the inflation outlook may prompt an update to our forecasts. A negotiated solution to the tariff wars appears to be imminent. We are also seeing this expectation strengthen in global markets and production data. If there is no supply-side pressure from this area, domestic production data will also adapt to this new situation over time. We believe that the revival in economic activity will unfold in accordance with the June interest rate decision.
 



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  Burada yer alan yatırım bilgi, yorum ve tavsiyeler yatırım danışmanlığı kapsamında değildir.Yatırım danışmanlığı hizmeti ; aracı kurumlar, portföy yönetim şirketleri, mevduat kabul etmeyen bankalar ile müşteri arasında imzalanacak yatırım danışmanlığı sözleşmesi çerçevesinde sunulmaktadır.Burada yer alan yorum ve tavsiyeler, yorum ve tavsiyede bulunanların kişisel görüşlerine dayanmaktadır.Bu görüşler mali durumunuz ile risk ve getiri tercihlerinize uygun olmayabılır.Bu nedenle, sadece burada yer alan bilgilere dayanılarak yatırım kararı verilmesi beklentilerinize uygun sonuçlar doğurmayabilir.