Market Watch (Şeker Yatırım)

Market Watch - Tuesday, June 17, 2025
Outlook:
The BIST 100 Index started Monday with a flat opening and followed an upward, volatile course throughout the day. Amid limited buying interest toward the end of the session the Benchmark Index closed at 9,350.01, up 0.41%. The Banking Index rose by 0.92%, while the Industrial Index increased by 0.73%. News that Iran is trying to de-escalate tension with Israel and is open to nuclear negotiations was among the factors supporting market buying interest. The decline in oil prices on Monday, despite heightened geopolitical risk in the Middle East, also contributed to the rebound in the markets. As a result of these developments, both U.S. and European stock markets closed the day with gains. However, recent statements from Israel and Iran indicating the potential intensification of attacks have curbed potential risk appetite. U.S. and German futures are trading lower this morning, while Asian markets observe mixed trading. The VIOP-30 Index ended the evening session flat with a slight gain of 0.05%. We expect short-term market volatility to persist due to the continuing retaliatory actions between Israel and Iran and mounting geopolitical risk. We expect the BIST 100 Index to start Tuesday amid slight selling pressure and follow a volatile course thereafter.
Money Market:
The Lira was positive yesterday, gaining 0.07% against the USD to close at 39.3683. The currency also depreciated by 0.02% against a basket of $0.50 and €0.50. Meanwhile, the local fixed income markets were relatively flat. The ten-year benchmark bond was traded within a range of 33.85%-33.98%, ending at the 33.93%, unchanged from its previous closing.
Headlines:
The current account balance posts a deficit of USD 7.9 billion in April, while the 12-month cumulative current account deficit is at USD 15.8 billion. Strong outflows from portfolio investments continue.
According to balance of payments statistics, the current account balance for April showed a deficit of USD 7,864 million. As a result, the 12-month current account deficit stood at US$15,815 million (previous: USD 12,780 million). Our expectation was for a current account deficit of USD 7.3 billion, which was below market expectations (USD 7.5 billion deficit). There is a deterioration above both the market's and our expectations. We had anticipated a more negative outlook for the current account deficit compared to 2024, particularly in the second half of 2025. The recovery of domestic economic activity led by import demand, alongside interest rate cuts, formed the basis of our baseline scenario for the current account balance. Despite the high interest rate environment, the actual figures indicate that we may experience a current account deficit exceeding our expectations once interest rate cuts are implemented. The current outlook could delay our year-start projections by a quarter. The CBRT is closely monitoring developments in the global outlook and risk appetite. In this period of heightened geopolitical risk, the Bank will take into account the potential shocks to both inflation and the payments balance from energy prices. May inflation figures are hinting at interest rate cuts. If the slowdown in inflation is accompanied by a global environment of peace and risk appetite, we may see more aggressive interest rate cuts as of June. Looking into the details of the current account balance, the balance of payments-defined trade deficit of USD 9,891 million and inflows from the services balance of USD 3,903 million were effective. The 12-month cumulative trade deficit defined by the balance of payments was USD 60.3 billion, while inflows from the services balance reached USD 62 billion. We expect inflows from the services balance to gain momentum starting in the summer months. The current account balance, excluding gold and energy, showed a deficit of USD 1,938 million this month. While the strong trend in gold imports continues, downward pressure on energy prices is increasing demand. Core current account balance indicators also deteriorated beyond expectations for the first time in 23 months as of April. If tariff and new measures related to global trade are resolved through negotiations, markets will see relief. However, a limited negative process is expected to impact the balance of payments.
In May, the budget surplus is TL235.2 billion and the primary surplus is TL346.4 billion. We believe that the positive outlook for the budget, which has been bolstered by corporate tax collections, is temporary.
According to the central government budget data for May published by the Ministry of Treasury and Finance, budget revenues amounted to TL1,324.9 billion and budget expenditures amounted to TL1,089.7 billion. During the same period, non-interest budget expenditures amounted to TL978.6 billion. With these figures, the budget surplus was TL235.2 billion, while the non-interest balance posted a surplus of TL 346.4 billion. We were expecting a seasonal recovery in the budget during the May period, led by corporate tax revenues. The decline in interest expenditures also eased pressure on the budget. While the average interest expense for the first four months of the year was 180 billion lira, it declined to 111 billion lira in May. Current transfers and personnel expenses remained relatively flat. In April, 18.8 billion lira and 34.4 billion lira in current transfers were made to Elektrik Üretim A.Ş. and BOTAŞ, respectively. While economic and financial transfers were withdrawn, this recovery was balanced by SGK transfers. Due to holiday bonuses, 57.6 billion lira was transferred from the budget in May. Despite a total of 110.9 billion lira in transfers to public enterprises and SGK, the budget outlook is positive. The main reason for this is the collection of approximately 470 billion lira in corporate taxes. When adjusted for seasonal effects, the budget continues to show a limited negative outlook. Following the additional tightening of monetary policy in April, the room for maneuver has narrowed considerably. Any further tightening at this stage could lead to sharper declines in the growth-employment-production cycle. This indicates that additional tasks will fall to public finances. In particular, the additional contribution that public spending will make to inflation is complicating the task of monetary policy. If budget revenues are not increased (assuming that spending is not cut to the targeted level), which means additional taxes, the budget deficit could spiral out of control. Inflation and changes in the pension system have caused permanent damage to the budget. It will take time for fiscal discipline in the budget to converge to its historical average. We remind readers that the desired level of tightness in fiscal policy has yet to be achieved and that the budget deficit may put additional pressure on inflation. Positive developments in the inflation outlook in May have strengthened the possibility of an interest rate cut. It would be appropriate to limit the upward pressure on inflation from monetary policy in the second half of the year through fiscal policy. The positive effect on long-term interest rates of a budget performance consistent with medium-term program targets will also ease monetary policy.
Budget expenditures increased by 38.3% compared to the same period of last year. The highest proportional increases were in borrowing expenditures (87.3%) and capital expenditures (61.6%), while the highest expenditure items were current transfers (TL456.6 billion) and personnel expenditures (TL275 billion). Budget revenues, on the other hand, have increased by an average of 31.6% annually. The highest increases were in income tax (88.4%) and bank and insurance transaction tax (76%). The sub-items that contributed the most to budget revenues were income tax and corporate tax (TL214 billion and TL471 billion, respectively). For the remainder of the year will see further coordination between fiscal and monetary policy. While it has been clearly stated that monetary policy will remain tight, fiscal policy will be adapted to this process, albeit with a delay. We expect the inflation-budget-growth performance to converge with the pre-2021 outlook in the 2026-2027 period.
Company News:
Garanti BBVA (GARAN.TI; OP) has sold its non-performing loan portfolio receivables arising from loans, credit cards, general purpose loans, cheque accounts, commercial loans, overdraft loans and all other related receivables and expenses together with the interest amount; in the total principal and contractual interest amount of TRY 512.7mn as of May 7, 2025, to Sumer Varlik Yonetim (SMRVA.TI; NC) for a total consideration of TRY 103mn. Also, the Bank has sold the total principal and contractual interest amount of TRY 510.7mn as of May 8, 2025, to Gelecek Varlik Yonetim (GLCVY.TI; NC) for a total consideration of TRY 102.13mn.



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  Burada yer alan yatırım bilgi, yorum ve tavsiyeler yatırım danışmanlığı kapsamında değildir.Yatırım danışmanlığı hizmeti ; aracı kurumlar, portföy yönetim şirketleri, mevduat kabul etmeyen bankalar ile müşteri arasında imzalanacak yatırım danışmanlığı sözleşmesi çerçevesinde sunulmaktadır.Burada yer alan yorum ve tavsiyeler, yorum ve tavsiyede bulunanların kişisel görüşlerine dayanmaktadır.Bu görüşler mali durumunuz ile risk ve getiri tercihlerinize uygun olmayabılır.Bu nedenle, sadece burada yer alan bilgilere dayanılarak yatırım kararı verilmesi beklentilerinize uygun sonuçlar doğurmayabilir.