Market Watch (Şeker Yatırım)

Outlook:
The BIST 100 Index started Wednesday with a bearish trend and continued to decline throughout the day, closing at 9,196.13, down by 1.54%. The Banking Index fell by 0.30%, while the Industrial Index declined by 1.08%. Geopolitical tension in the Middle East and expectations that it may persist for an extended period continue to negatively impact the markets. Globally, risk appetite showed a mixed pattern yesterday as reflected in the European and U.S. stock markets. Stateside the Fed, as expected, kept its policy rate unchanged and signaled that it is in no rush to cut rates. U.S. markets will be closed today for the Juneteenth holiday. Rising concerns over a potential U.S. attack on Iran have led to a sell-off in U.S. and German futures this morning, while Asian markets are also experiencing a downturn. The VIOP-30 Index ended the evening session with a 0.50% gain. On the data front, the CBRT’s interest rate decision will be followed today. Both market and our expectations are for no change in the policy rate; however, we see a high probability that the CBRT will revert to a symmetric interest rate corridor and cut the lending rate by 150 basis points. The statement accompanying the decision will be closely monitored for insights into inflation developments, the reasoning behind the interest rate decision, and the monetary policy stance. We expect the BIST 100 Index to start Thursday flat and follow a volatile course thereafter.
Money Market:
The Lira was negative yesterday, weakening 0.11% against the USD to close at 39.5272. The currency also appreciated by 0.05% against a basket of $0.50 and €0.50. Meanwhile, the local fixed income markets were negative. The ten-year benchmark bond was traded within a range of 34.13%-34.28%, ending the day at a low of 34.13%, 29 bps above its previous closing.
Headlines:
Today, the Central Bank will announce its interest rate decision. Both the market and our expectations are for no change in the policy rate. However, it is highly likely that the CBRT, which has moved to an asymmetric corridor, will return to a symmetric corridor and reduce the lending rate (49%) by 150 basis points. Thus, the borrowing/lending rate (44.5%-49%) would return to a symmetric appearance around the policy rate (46%) with a 150 basis point spread. Due to recent geopolitical developments and upward risks in commodity prices, the CBRT may adopt a prudential stance. The decision text will be closely monitored for statements regarding inflation developments, the rationale behind the interest rate decision, and the monetary policy stance. We will publish our detailed analysis later today.

Şeker Yatırım Menkul Değerler A.Ş.

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                               Yasal Uyarı
 
  Burada yer alan yatırım bilgi, yorum ve tavsiyeler yatırım danışmanlığı kapsamında değildir.Yatırım danışmanlığı hizmeti ; aracı kurumlar, portföy yönetim şirketleri, mevduat kabul etmeyen bankalar ile müşteri arasında imzalanacak yatırım danışmanlığı sözleşmesi çerçevesinde sunulmaktadır.Burada yer alan yorum ve tavsiyeler, yorum ve tavsiyede bulunanların kişisel görüşlerine dayanmaktadır.Bu görüşler mali durumunuz ile risk ve getiri tercihlerinize uygun olmayabılır.Bu nedenle, sadece burada yer alan bilgilere dayanılarak yatırım kararı verilmesi beklentilerinize uygun sonuçlar doğurmayabilir.