Market watch (Şeker Yatırım)

Market Watch - Friday, June 20, 2025

Outlook:

The BIST 100 Index started Thursday with a buying trend but struggled to maintain its momentum throughout the day. Towards the close, mounting selling pressure caused the index to end the day down by 1.02% at 9,102.02. The Banking Index fell by 1.87%, while the Industrial Index declined by 0.46%. At its monetary policy meeting this month, the CBRT kept the policy rate unchanged at 46%, in line with market expectations, also maintaining the overnight lending rate at 49%. The general market expectation was for the upper bound of the corridor-the lending rate-to potentially be cut. By keeping both the policy rate and the corridor width unchanged, the CBRT chose to deliver a message of caution to the market. Prior to the CBRT decision, the BIST 100 Index had been on a positive trend, but selling pressure followed the announcement. On the global front while U.S. markets were closed yesterday, European markets ended the day lower. Following President Trump's statement that he would decide within two weeks whether to strike Iran, U.S. futures have been negative, while a positive trend dominated the German futures index and Asian markets. The VIOP-30 Index ended the evening session positively with a 0.62% gain. We expect the BIST 100 Index to start Friday with a limited positive opening, followed by volatile trading throughout the session.

Money Market:

The Lira was negative yesterday, weakening 0.10% against the USD to close at 39.5656. The currency also appreciated by 0.03% against a basket of $0.50 and €0.50. Meanwhile, the local fixed income markets were positive. The ten-year benchmark bond was traded within a range of 33.33%-33.52%, ending the day at a low of 33.33%, 80 bps below its previous closing.

Headlines:

CBRT keeps policy rate steady at 46%, in line with expectations. While the corridor width is maintained asymmetrically, the CBRT adopts a cautious stance throughout the text.

At its meeting this month, the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) kept the policy rate unchanged at 46%, in line with market expectations. The general market expectation was for a possible reduction in the lending rate, which is the upper band of the corridor. By keeping both the policy rate and the corridor width unchanged, the CBRT chose to send a cautious message to the market. Although some changes were made to the decision text, we see that the general tone remains consistent with the April decision. The main change relates to the slowdown in domestic demand in the second quarter. The decline in the output gap indicates that the cooling of the economy will become more pronounced. The second point concerns increasing protectionist measures, downward risks in global trade, and geopolitical developments. Negotiations on tariffs have yet to achieve the desired progress, and uncertainty continues. In addition, the current state of tension between Israel and Iran and the rhetoric of the parties escalating the tension could trigger a new wave of inflation, particularly in commodities. The CBRT has maintained its cautious stance, stating that it is closely monitoring all these processes and assessing their potential impact on inflation. Although market expectations for a rate cut were not met, it is understood that the disinflation process will continue with determination. The relatively tight monetary policy and relatively high real interest rates have significantly slowed down demand-pull inflation. The CBRT's decision to keep interest rates unchanged at this meeting is intended to test the persistence of external shocks and their impact on domestic macroeconomic indicators. Although the impact on financial markets is negative, we consider this to be an appropriate decision in the fight against inflation.

While the latest inflation report provided details on the year-end inflation forecast, there was a downward revision in energy prices. However, geopolitical tensions have increased the price of oil by approximately 20% ($13) per barrel. In addition, the possibility of the Strait of Hormuz being closed in the event of escalating tensions keeps upward risk in oil prices alive. The addition of volatility in energy prices to global trade and tariff risks is emerging as a factor triggering inflation in all markets. These were also the points highlighted by the FED at yesterday's meeting when it kept interest rates unchanged. Policymakers, unwilling to risk the damage that an early and untimely interest rate cut could cause, opt instead to buy time until a new equilibrium is achieved. Taking all these developments into account, the CBRT wanted to gain time in the fight against inflation and see the contributions that the latest tightening has made/will make to disinflation. This is because the positive contributions of tightening may weaken due to local and global developments. The CBRT did not want to act without seeing this clear effect.

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                               Yasal Uyarı
 
  Burada yer alan yatırım bilgi, yorum ve tavsiyeler yatırım danışmanlığı kapsamında değildir.Yatırım danışmanlığı hizmeti ; aracı kurumlar, portföy yönetim şirketleri, mevduat kabul etmeyen bankalar ile müşteri arasında imzalanacak yatırım danışmanlığı sözleşmesi çerçevesinde sunulmaktadır.Burada yer alan yorum ve tavsiyeler, yorum ve tavsiyede bulunanların kişisel görüşlerine dayanmaktadır.Bu görüşler mali durumunuz ile risk ve getiri tercihlerinize uygun olmayabılır.Bu nedenle, sadece burada yer alan bilgilere dayanılarak yatırım kararı verilmesi beklentilerinize uygun sonuçlar doğurmayabilir.