Market Watch (Şeker Yatırım)

Market Watch - Thursday, July 17, 2025
Outlook:
The BIST 100 Index started Wednesday flat, fluctuating in the first half of the day before reversing its direction in the second half, led by banking stocks. Although the Benchmark Index dipped below 10,000 amid selling pressure, it recouped some of its losses with buying toward the end of the day, closing at 10,121.52, down 1.02%. The Industrial Index fell 0.93% and the Banking Index declined by 2.56%. Rising geopolitical tension following Israel's airstrikes on Syria contributed to domestic selling pressure. Global risk appetite was mixed midweek. European stock markets closed lower, but markets rose after President Trump stated that he had no plans to dismiss Fed Chair Powell, and U.S. June PPI data supported expectations that the Fed might begin cutting interest rates this year. This morning, the U.S. futures were trading lower, while DAX futures were trading positively, and Asian stock markets were mixed. The VIOP-30 Index closed the evening session up 0.31%. Today's macroeconomic data will focus on housing sales data domestically, while globally, the Eurozone CPI and the U.S. retail sales data will be watched. We expect the Benchmark Index to start Thursday with reaction purchases and fluctuate thereafter. SUPPORT: 10,050 - 9,950 RESISTANCE: 10,250 - 10,380.
Money Market:
The Lira was negative yesterday, weakening 0.02% against the USD to close at 40.2441. The currency also appreciated by 0.12% against a basket of $0.50 and €0.50. Meanwhile, the local fixed income markets were relatively flat. The ten-year benchmark bond was traded within a tight range of 32.07%-32.12%, ending the day at a high of 32.12%, 4 bps above its previous closing.
Headlines:
*** In June, the budget recorded a deficit of TRY 330.2 billion and the non-interest balance recorded a deficit of TRY54.5 billion. While interest rates are putting increasing pressure on the budget balance, core indicators continue to show signs of recovery: According to the central government budget data for June published by the Ministry of Treasury and Finance, budget revenues amounted to TRY909.4 billion, while budget expenditures reached TRY1,239.6 billion. During the same period, non-interest budget expenditures amounted to TRY 963.9 billion. With these figures, the budget deficit was TRY330.2 billion, while the non-interest balance showed a surplus of TRY54.5 billion. Basic expenditures (excluding interest) showed a parallel trend with revenues, and the budget continued to recover in annual indicators. However, when interest expenditures are included in the overall picture, we are far from the targeted budget deficit. Interest payments of TRY277 billion on government domestic debt securities in June created negative pressure on the budget balance. With the May effect of corporate tax also disappearing, the budget deficit rose again to TRY300 billion levels. In the first six months of the year, an average of TRY185 billion and a total of TRY1.1 trillion in interest expenses were paid. Current transfers and personnel expenses remained almost unchanged from the previous month. In June, TRY18.2 billion in current transfers were made to Electricity Generation Inc. In the first six months of the year, a total of TRY183.3 billion in transfers were made to BOTAŞ and Electricity Generation Inc. We see the disruptive effect of inflation on both monetary and fiscal policy in the budget figures. The high level of borrowing interest rates is increasing the interest burden on the budget. Even if all revenues cover non-interest expenditures and the budget breaks even, cumulative interest payments remain at a very high level. It seems very difficult to achieve fiscal discipline without price stability. A decline in funding and borrowing rates would alleviate the interest burden on the budget. Additionally, in line with the decline in inflation, personnel expenses and public expenditures will stabilize at a more moderate level. Considering the inflation figures for May and June, we will enter a cautious and inflation-focused interest rate reduction cycle starting in July. Although these reductions will be reflected in the 2026-2027 fiscal outlook, they are of critical importance in terms of expectation management. We believe that both public finances and monetary policy will enter a more stable phase by the end of 2025. Although it will take time to reach the 2010-2020 budget performance, we believe that the necessary measures will be taken on the fiscal policy side. During this period, any negative shocks from the economic or political front could impact on both monetary and fiscal policy beyond expectations. Market players who are expecting improvements in indicators such as production and investment are focused on a low inflation-low interest rate cycle supported by economic and political stability. We estimate that we will enter this period as of July.
Budget expenditures increased by 43.1% compared to the same period last year. The highest proportional increases were in interest expenditures (177.7%) and goods/services procurement expenditures (56.5%), while the highest expenditure items were current transfers (TRY462.1 billion) and personnel expenditures (TRY277.6 billion). Budget revenues have increased by an average of 53.8% annually. The highest increases were in income tax (92.4%) and fees (91%). The sub-items that contributed the most to budget revenues were income tax and special consumption tax (TRY204.3 billion and TRY163.8 billion, respectively). Although the proportional increase in revenue generation and budget collection balances expenditures, interest pressure negatively affects budget performance. We believe this will be overcome through price stability, low funding rates, and the normalization of financial indicators.
Company News:
Pegasus (PGSUS.TI; OP) has released its monthly traffic figures for June 2025. The carrier's total PAX rose 10% YoY to 3.61mn (June 2024: 3.27mn, May 2025: 3.62mn) for the month. Domestic PAX rose 7% YoY to 1.29mn (June 2024: 1.20mn, May 2025: 1.31mn). International PAX improved 12% YoY to 2.33mn for the month (June 2024: 2.07mn, May 2025: 2.31mn). The total load factor was down 0.1 pp YoY to 86.6% (June 2024: 86.7%, May 2025: 85.9%). The domestic load factor declined 0.2 pp YoY to 91.6% (June 2024: 91.8%, May 2025: 90.3%), while the international load factor rose 0.1 pp YoY to 84.1% (June 2024: 84.0%, May 2025: 83.6%). Thus, the Company's int'l PAX in June 2025 reached approximately 64.5% (June 2024: 63.3%, May 2025: 63.8%) of the total passenger number. Total ASK rose 13% YoY to 6.8bn in June 2025. The continued strength of the PAX growth trend in international flights and the growth in domestic PAX indicate the continuation of Pegasus' positive operational trend. The announced traffic results may positively impact on the short-term performance of the Company's shares (Positive).


Şeker Yatırım Menkul Değerler A.Ş.

 www.sekeryatirim.com.tr

                                  ***
                               Yasal Uyarı
 
  Burada yer alan yatırım bilgi, yorum ve tavsiyeler yatırım danışmanlığı kapsamında değildir.Yatırım danışmanlığı hizmeti ; aracı kurumlar, portföy yönetim şirketleri, mevduat kabul etmeyen bankalar ile müşteri arasında imzalanacak yatırım danışmanlığı sözleşmesi çerçevesinde sunulmaktadır.Burada yer alan yorum ve tavsiyeler, yorum ve tavsiyede bulunanların kişisel görüşlerine dayanmaktadır.Bu görüşler mali durumunuz ile risk ve getiri tercihlerinize uygun olmayabılır.Bu nedenle, sadece burada yer alan bilgilere dayanılarak yatırım kararı verilmesi beklentilerinize uygun sonuçlar doğurmayabilir.