Market Watch (Şeker Yatırım)

Market Watch - Thursday, July 24, 2025
Outlook:
The BIST 100 Index started Wednesday on a positive trend, struggling to maintain it later in the day. Focusing on today's CBRT interest rate decision, the BIST fluctuated between 10,572 and 10,673 throughout the day, closing at 10,591.98, down 0.23%. The Industrial Index and the Banking Index fell 0.23%, & 0.41%, respectively. Domestic markets will be focused on the CBRT interest rate decision, to be announced at 2:00 PM today. While market expectations are for a 250 bps cut in the policy rate, our expectation is for a 350 bps cut. Following the decision, the CBRT's thoughts on inflation developments, the rationale for the interest rate cut, and its assessment of the monetary policy stance will determine market direction. Globally, risk appetite followed a positive trend midweek. Japan's agreement to impose a 15% reciprocal tariff on exports to the U.S. had a positive impact on global stock markets, raising expectations that the U.S. could reach similar agreements with other countries. European and U.S. stock markets closed higher today. This morning, the U.S. futures indexes were mixed, while German DAX futures and Asian stock markets were bullish. The VIOP-30 Index closed the evening session positively, up 0.37%. Markets abroad will be watching the ECB's rate decision. Locally, we expect the Benchmark Index to start Thursday on a positive trend, then fluctuate for the rest of the day, depending on the announcements to follow the CBRT's decision. SUPPORT: 10,550 - 10,450 RESISTANCE: 10,750 - 10,900.
Money Market:
The Lira was negative yesterday, weakening 0.08% against the USD to close at 40.4530. The currency also depreciated by 0.08% against a basket of $0.50 and €0.50. Meanwhile, the local fixed income markets were relatively flat. The ten-year benchmark bond yield fluctuated between a tight range of 31.30%-31.39%, closing the day at 31.33%, down 6 bps from the previous close.
Headlines:
Today, the Central Bank will announce its interest rate decision locally. Market expectations are for a 250 basis point cut in the policy rate. As Seker Invest, we expect a 350 basis point cut in the policy rate. If the Central Bank acts in line with our expectations, it will have taken a step toward normalization, returning to the period before March. A cautious 250 basis point cut in line with market expectations is also highly likely. The decision text will be closely monitored for statements regarding inflation developments, the rationale behind the interest rate decision, and monetary policy stance. We will publish our detailed analysis later today following the decision.
Sector News:
A new regulation regarding SCT rates for the automotive sector has been published in the Official Gazette and has come into effect. According to the regulation: For vehicles with an engine displacement not exceeding 1,400 cm³, the tax rate will range between 70% and 90%. For vehicles with an engine displacement over 1,400 cm³ but not exceeding 1,600 cm³, the tax rate will range between 75% and 100%. For vehicles with an engine displacement over 1,600 cm³ but not exceeding 2,000 cm³, the tax rate will range between 70% and 170%. For vehicles with an engine displacement exceeding 2,000 cm³, the tax rate will range between 150% and 220%. For electric vehicles, the tax base for models with a motor power of 160 kW or less has been increased to 1,650,000 TRY. For models with motor power exceeding 160 kW: A 65% SCT rate will apply if the tax base is 1,650,000 TRY or below. A 75% SCT rate will apply if the tax base exceeds 1,650,000 TRY.
Company News:
Aselsan (ASELS.TI; OP) has signed an agreement with the Secretariat of Defence Industries regarding the procurement of Electronic Warfare, Counter UAV and New Generation Mortar Alignment Systems for USD 169,7mn. Deliveries will be made between 2026 and 2029. The contract size corresponds to ~1.13% of Aselsan's total order size (Positive).



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