Market Watch (Şeker Yatırım)

Market Watch - Monday, July 28, 2025
Outlook:
The BIST 100 Index started Friday on a positive trend which it struggled to maintain later in the day. Faced with profit-taking, the Benchmark Index closed the week down 0.43% at 10,642.60. The Industrial Index fell 0.47% and the Banking Index lost 0.43%. The BIST 100 Index, which started last week positively and followed a bullish trend throughout, gained 2.67% for the week. International credit rating agency Moody's upgraded Türkiye's credit rating from "B1" to "Ba3" after markets closed on Friday, revising its outlook from "positive" to "stable." Meanwhile, Fitch affirmed Turkey's credit rating at "BB-" and its outlook at "stable." Market expectations had been for neither agency to make any changes. We believe that optimistic pricing in the markets may continue today following Moody's surprising rating upgrade. Globally, stock markets closed the week on a mixed note on Friday. European stock markets, excluding France, amid news flow regarding the U.S. tariffs with the EU and other countries set to take effect on August 1st, ended the week lower. Meanwhile, U.S. bourses closed higher. Following President Trump's announcement that the U.S. had concluded trade agreement negotiations with the EU and would impose a 15% tariff on EU products, risk appetite began the week positively. This morning, the U.S. and German DAX futures indices reveal a positive outlook, while Asian stock markets are mixed. The VIOP-30 Index closed Friday evening up 0.03%. Locally, we expect the Benchmark Index to start Monday on a bullish trend and seek to maintain it thereafter. SUPPORT: 10,550 - 10,450 RESISTANCE: 10,750 - 10,900.
Money Market:
The Lira was negative on Friday, weakening 0.19% against the USD to close at 40.5539. The currency also appreciated by 0.07% against a basket of $0.50 and €0.50. Meanwhile, the local fixed income markets were negative. The ten-year benchmark bond was traded within a tight range of 31.54%-31.62%, ending the day at a high of 31.62%, 29 bps above its previous closing.
Headlines:
International credit rating agency Moody's has upgraded Turkey's credit rating from "B1" to "Ba3" and revised its outlook from 'positive' to "stable." Moody's stated that the main reason for the rating upgrade was the Central Bank's commitment to monetary policies that permanently reduce inflationary pressures, address economic imbalances, and gradually rebuild the confidence of both domestic savers and foreign investors in the Turkish Lira. The agency emphasized that this development also reflects an improvement in Turkey's capacity to formulate effective policies. On the same day, in another assessment, Fitch Ratings affirmed Turkey's Long-Term Foreign Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at "BB-" with a "stable" outlook. Fitch stated that this decision reflects Turkey's fundamental credit weaknesses, such as its history of high inflation, political interference in monetary policy, low external liquidity relative to high financing needs, and weak governance scores compared to similar countries. Fitch expects monetary policy to remain tight until 2026. Noting that inflation has fallen by more than half to 35% as of June, Fitch forecasts inflation to decline to 28% by the end of 2025 and 21% by the end of 2026.
While Moody's decision reflects a surprising positive development, the risks highlighted by Fitch may limit the positive sentiment in financial markets. In particular, further rating upgrades and outlook assessments from these levels require a politically neutral, independent monetary policy and price stability as a precondition. Despite the highlighted risk factors, we believe Moody's rating upgrade will create an atmosphere supportive of risk appetite. If there is no negative shock in monetary and fiscal policies, the capital inflows gained momentum by the rating upgrade will inevitably reduce risk premiums and bring new rating upgrades. The decline in inflation and risk premiums, along with the decrease in interest rates, will positively reflect on borrowing costs, creating a more positive atmosphere in the second half of the year compared to the first half.
Company News:
Arcelik (ARCLK.TI; OP) incurred a loss of TRY 2,336mn in 2Q25, including the impact of TAS-29, exceeding our expectations of TRY 1,100mn and the market's expectations of TRY 1,510mn. The absence of a valuation gain stemming from the merger in this quarter led to an 87% decline in operating profit before financial expenses, coupled with increased net financial expenses.
The Company's net sales revenue, including the impact of TAS-29, decreased by 11.5% year-over-year to TRY 121,364mn in 2Q 2025, compared to our expectations of TRY 123,200mn and the market's expectation of TRY 122,168mn. Despite stable domestic demand, sales revenues contracted by 5.4% year-over-year in 2Q 2025 due to an unfavorable product mix and pricing challenges. International sales declined by 14% year-over-year due to weak performance in Europe, weak demand in other international markets, and volume declines. In Turkey, demand remains under pressure, in line with our expectations, due to high interest rates and installment restrictions. In international markets, pressure from Chinese manufacturers in Europe has become more pronounced. While the slowdown continues in France, Germany, and Austria, growth has been achieved in markets such as the UK, Italy, Spain, and Pakistan.
Among key raw materials, metal raw material prices continued to decline year-over-year in the second quarter on weak global demand, idle capacity, and China's increasing exports. Plastic raw material prices declined significantly both year-over-year and quarter-over-quarter. Despite expectations of a limited increase in the final quarter, prices are expected to remain well below last year's average. EBITDA improved quarter-over-quarter thanks to the improvement in gross margin and cost transformation efforts at Whirlpool operations. EBITDA in 2Q 2025 reached TRY 7,075mn, compared to our estimate of TRY 6,795mn and the consensus estimate of TRY 6,968mn. The EBITDA margin was 5.8% (2Q 2024: 4.6%).
2025 expectations maintained. The company expects flat domestic real growth in 2025, with international revenues expected to grow by approximately 15%+ on a foreign currency basis. The adjusted EBITDA margin is expected to improve to 6.5%, and capital expenditures of approximately €300 million are anticipated.
Tofas (TOASO.TI; OP) is to announce its 2Q25 results after the close of the TR markets. For 2Q25, we expect net sales of TRY 65,952mn (Research Turkey market average expectation: TRY 65,581mn). On the EBITDA side, the average market expectation is TRY 2,532mn, while our expectation is TRY 2,473mn. As a result, we expect the Company to print a net profit of TRY 1,224mn (market expectation: TRY 1,023mn).



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                               Yasal Uyarı
 
  Burada yer alan yatırım bilgi, yorum ve tavsiyeler yatırım danışmanlığı kapsamında değildir.Yatırım danışmanlığı hizmeti ; aracı kurumlar, portföy yönetim şirketleri, mevduat kabul etmeyen bankalar ile müşteri arasında imzalanacak yatırım danışmanlığı sözleşmesi çerçevesinde sunulmaktadır.Burada yer alan yorum ve tavsiyeler, yorum ve tavsiyede bulunanların kişisel görüşlerine dayanmaktadır.Bu görüşler mali durumunuz ile risk ve getiri tercihlerinize uygun olmayabılır.Bu nedenle, sadece burada yer alan bilgilere dayanılarak yatırım kararı verilmesi beklentilerinize uygun sonuçlar doğurmayabilir.