Market Watch (Şeker Yatırım)

Market Watch - Tuesday, July 29, 2025
Outlook:
The BIST 100 Index started Monday on a positive trend but failed to maintain it later, closing the day at 10,542.09, down 0.94% after profit-taking. The Industrial Index fell 0.62% while the Banking Index diverged negatively, down 1.81%. Contrary to expectations, international credit rating agency Moody's upgraded Türkiye's credit rating by one notch, but its impact on the markets was limited. Following the start of the CBRT's interest rate cut cycle and the rating agencies' assessments of Turkey, we believe markets will focus on the second-quarter financial results, which have begun to be released, in the short term. Accordingly, we expect stock-based movements to dominate the BIST based on second-quarter earnings expectations. Globally, stock markets generally followed a negative trend on Monday. European stock markets, which started the week higher on optimism generated by the 15% tariff agreement between the U.S. and EU, ended the day lower, while the U.S. stock markets closed on a mixed note. This morning, the U.S. and German DAX futures revealed a positive outlook, while Asian stocks saw mixed activity. The VIOP-30 Index closed the evening session down 0.19%. Locally, we expect the Benchmark Index to start Tuesday flat and fluctuate later in the day. SUPPORT: 10,450 - 10,350 RESISTANCE: 10,750 - 10,900.
Money Market:
The Lira was negative yesterday, weakening 0.03% against the USD to close at 40.5642. The currency also appreciated by 0.53% against a basket of $0.50 and €0.50. Meanwhile, the local fixed income markets were relatively flat. The ten-year benchmark bond was ending at 31.64%, 2 bps above its previous closing.
Company News:
Akbank (AKBNK.TI; OP) is to announce its 2Q25 financials today after the market close. The market consensus net income estimate is TRY11,104mn, indicating 1.6% earnings growth on a YoY basis and a 19.1% earnings decline YoY.
Garanti BBVA (GARAN.TI; OP) has announced that the Bank has sold its non-performing loan portfolio receivables valued at approximately TL 1.5bn to Gelecek Varlik Yönetimi (GLCVY.TI; N/C) for a total consideration of TL 302mn (Slightly Positive).
TAV Airports Holding (TAVHL.TI; OP) is to announce its 2Q25 results after the close of the TR markets. For 2Q25, we expect net sales of € 461mn (Research Turkey market average expectation: € 496mn). On the EBITDA side, the average market expectation is € 148mn, while our expectation is € 144mn. As a result, we expect the Company to print a net profit of € 18mn (market expectation: € 13mn).
TSKB (TSKB.TI; OP) has announced that with the authorization granted by the Bank's Board of Directors, a syndicated loan agreement consisting of four separate tranches, amounting to USD 76 million and EUR 112.8 million with a maturity of 367 days, and USD 25 million and EUR 5 million with a maturity of 734 days, was signed on July 28, 2025, with the participation of banks from international markets with the coordination of Commerzbank Aktiengesellschaft (Slightly Positive).
Tofas (TOASO.TI; OP) exceeded both the RT consensus average net profit estimate of TRY 1,023mn and our estimate of TRY 1,224mn, posting a net profit of TRY 1,751mn based on inflation-adjusted (TAS 29) financials (2Q24: TRY 1,738mn). While cost pressures arising from low capacity utilization, increased operating expenses, and higher FX losses from operating activities weighed on profitability, the recognition of monetary gains compared to the same period last year, improved net financial income, and stronger operational performance following the Stellantis merger were key drivers behind the strong bottom-line result.
In terms of revenue, the Company reported net sales of TRY 69,440mn, reflecting a 116.4% YoY increase including the TAS 29 impact, compared to TRY 32,096mn in 2Q24 (RT consensus: TRY 65,581mn; Seker: TRY 65,952mn). EBITDA declined by 34% YoY to TRY 2,420mn, including the TAS 29 effect (2Q24: TRY 3,673mn) (Seker: TRY 2,473mn; RT consensus: TRY 2,532mn).
2025 Outlook: Tofaş has revised its 2025 guidance. The company expects the domestic retail market to be in the range of 1.1mn-1.2mn units (previous: 0.9mn-1.1mn). Tofas-branded domestic vehicle sales are forecast to reach 300k-330k units (previous: 110k-130k units), driven by Stellantis integration. Export volumes are expected at 70k-80k units (previous: 70k-90k units). Planned CapEx target for 2025 are projected at EUR 150mn. Total production is expected to be in the 150k-160k unit range (previous: 150k-170k units). Pre-tax profit margin guidance stands at 3% for 2025, with a long-term target of 5%-7% by 2028 (Positive).
Tupras (TUPRS.TI; OP) is set to announce its 2Q25 financials today after the market close. The median market expectation is for a net profit of TRY 6,742mn, while net sales revenues and EBITDA are expected to come in at TRY 176,225mn and TRY 13,267mn, respectively.
Türk Traktör (TTRAK.TI; N/C) has announced that production will be suspended for 12 working days between August 4 and August 16 in its company's Ankara and Erenler factories due to annual planned maintenance/repair works. Normal production will resume on August 18 (Neutral).



Şeker Yatırım Menkul Değerler A.Ş.

 www.sekeryatirim.com.tr

                                  ***
                               Yasal Uyarı
 
  Burada yer alan yatırım bilgi, yorum ve tavsiyeler yatırım danışmanlığı kapsamında değildir.Yatırım danışmanlığı hizmeti ; aracı kurumlar, portföy yönetim şirketleri, mevduat kabul etmeyen bankalar ile müşteri arasında imzalanacak yatırım danışmanlığı sözleşmesi çerçevesinde sunulmaktadır.Burada yer alan yorum ve tavsiyeler, yorum ve tavsiyede bulunanların kişisel görüşlerine dayanmaktadır.Bu görüşler mali durumunuz ile risk ve getiri tercihlerinize uygun olmayabılır.Bu nedenle, sadece burada yer alan bilgilere dayanılarak yatırım kararı verilmesi beklentilerinize uygun sonuçlar doğurmayabilir.